Tommy TwoStep - 2008 Best Case Worst Case

March 27, 2008:

CF – Nate McLouth: Best Case: McLouth continues his strong spring play into the regular season and is counted on as a reliable, everyday lead off hitter, base stealer, and double machine for a .500 ball club. McLouth pokes around 25 doubles, steals 25 bases, and has double digit homeruns while batting .270 out of the lead off position. Worst Case: Pirates decide to platoon McLouth with Nyjer Morgan in centerfield, splitting his at-bats. Pirate fans are torn on whether to accept Morgan(town)s great defense, great speed, and old school stir-ups or McLouth’s well rounded, albeit average skills, as a lead off hitter. McLouth bats below .250 with a below .300 OBP.

SS – Jack Wilson: Best Case: Wilson shrugs off the trade rumors that swirled last season and enjoy another fine defensive season at shortstop. Wilson continues his aggressive approach at the plate (38 BB in 477 AB)and is a good hit and run candidate (only 46 strikeouts in 2007) with McLouth on base. Worst Case: This is in fact Wilson’s last year in Pittsburgh, he struggles early with his offense, and is traded to the American League contender looking to upgrade on defense. The Pirates are forced to bring Brian Bixler up to supplant Wilson at shortstop mid-season, a move for which Bixler and the Pirates are not ready for.

2B – Freddy Sanchez: Best Case: Steady Freddy recovers from off season shoulder surgery, gets off to a better start than 2007 (.224 average in April) and finishes with a .300+ average and 30+ doubles while playing a great second base. Worst Case: Freddy has the off-season contract negotiations go his head, he plays hurt, does not produce, and has to have more surgery during the season missing significant playing time.

LF – Jason Bay: Best Case: Obvious candidate for bounce back year (.247/.327/.418 anyone?), Bay quickly returns to 2006 figures and swats over 30 homers and drives in 90 runs as a middle of the lineup presence. Hey, while we are at it, why not throw in 80-90 walks for the season. Somehow way back in 2006 Bay drew over 100 walks. That is unprecedented in a Pirate line-up since swatter Brian Giles. Bay had tendencies to approach an at-bat by blatantly taking a handful of pitches. In 2006, those pitches led to walks. Last season, they lead to 0-2 counts and an unbelievable amount of strikeouts where Bay never took one aggressive swing. Not something you want from your power hitter. Worst Case: Bay continues to decline and at the age of 29 sees his MLB window closing quickly with the Pirates ability to play McLouth in left field (Nate played 24 games in LF in 2007). Balky knee and diminishing stats make Bay no trade bait for the Pirates to use to get yet more prospects in return.

1B – Adam LaRoche: Best Case: LaRoche gets off to a better start than his horrendous pre all-star 2006 splits (.239 average, really?) and his numbers fall in line with career averages (.273 average). LaRoches shaves that disgusting looking, red goatee and strikes out less than 130 times. Worst Case: Spring swoons again haunt LaRoche as his average doesn’t crack .200 until June and he doesn’t take advantage of the short porch in right field swatting only 17 homers. Strikes out 170 times.

RF – Xavier Nady: Best Case: Health is a huge concern with Nady as he pulled a hamstring in 2007 and had a hard time shaking off the lingering effects of the injury resulting in missed playing time. The missed playing time only opened up his right field spot for grabs to players such as McLouth, Ryan Doumit, and Steve Pearce. Nady needs to start hot for the fans and coaches so there is no playing time controversy in right field. Nady scratches the .300 ceiling with 20+ homers and 80+ RBIs. Worst Case: Hamstring acts up within the first month of the season and we only see spot duty for Nady in right field on only when the match-up calls for a Nady start. Nady becomes a bench option, but overall production is hampered by injury.

C – Ryan Doumit: Best Case: Doumit clearly beats out Paulino in spring training and brings a switch hitting power bat to the Bucco line-up. Ryan gets better at calling games from behind the plate, the lone category Paulino is in favor in. Worst Case: A platoon player, spot starts behind the plate, a few starts in right, as well as becoming a bench/pinch hitter.

3B – Jose Bautista: Best Case: Continues strong defensive play at third base, shoring up the Pirate infield as one of the best defensively in the National League. Shows pop for a bottom of the lineup hitters, pounding 15+ homers. Worst Case: Offensive is nowhere to be found with low averages (.240 career average and the Pirates thought about batting him leadoff!?!?) and high strike outs. Loses playing time at third to vets Doug Mientkiewicz and Chris Gomez.

P – Ian Snell: Best Case: Continues assent into staff ace status with 15+ wins and 200+ innings. Strong strike out numbers and ERA below 3.50. At one point last season Snell was 7-5 with a 2.93 ERA in 116.2 IP. Worst Case: Snell struggled letting up the bombs in 2007 resulting in a ballooned ERA after the all-star break (13 HR in 15 starts with a 4.85 ERA). Snell continues to let up high homerun figures, loses 10+ games for a third straight season, and has an ERA over 4.00.

P – Tom Gorzelanny: Best Case: Continues his assent to staff ace status along with Snell, forming a nice one-two, lefty-righty combo at the top of the Pirate rotation. Gorzo also reaches 15+ wins with Snell marking the first time the Pirates have had two 15 game winners since sometime around 1992. Worst Case: Fatigue from career high 200+ inning count in 2007 hurts Gorzo as he experiences some arm troubles throughout the season and gets shut down for brief periods of time, resulting in brief 15 day stints on the DL. Never reaches 10 wins or 150 innings and has a ballooned ERA over 4.00 to go along with his arm troubles. (There was stirring controversy on why the Pirates pitched in 100+ in his last four September starts last year in his personal quest for 15 wins. The toll on his arm might arise in 2008.

P – Paul Maholm: Best Case: Fits nicely in the middle of the rotation as a soft throwing, inning eating lefty (175+ IP the last two seasons). Strikes out Billy Crystal again during a inter-league game against the Yankees after the Yankees recall Crystal after experiencing a rash of injuries. Another double digit winner for the Bucco staff. (That makes 30+ wins as a team right there!) Worst Case: Maholm eats up innings but also eats up walks and homers, ballooning his WHIP to 1.50+. No complete games and he too falls to the injury bug causing Pirate fans to wonder if they will ever spend a high draft pick on a successful Major League pitcher. (Bryan Bullington, Johnny Van Bench anyone?)

P – Matt Morris: Best Case: Someone actually wants his broken ass and the Pirates are able unload him near the deadline. Even if its for 60 cents on the dollar there is no need for him in the Pirate rotation. Worst Case: Matt Morris stinks. The end. Lets up the most hits per nine inning in MLB history and never reaches the seventh inning of any ball game. I have nothing more to add, lets move on.

P – Zach Duke: Best Case: Everybody falls back in love with Duke (8-2 as a 22 year old rookie in 2005. Three straight starts in July without letting up an earned run. Everyone loved him!) after he starts strong and actually puts together average stats for a fifth starter. Worst Case: Zach Duke stinks. The end. Duke continues to let opponents bat .350 off of him resulting in teams calling the Pirates to see if Duke can pitch BP to their ball clubs because his speed and location is eerily similar to their 65 year old broke-ass bullpen coaches.

RP – Matt Capps: Best Case: Capps continues to improve as one of the better young closers in the National League. Takes advantage of the few Pirate save opportunities in route to 20+ saves with a 90% save percentage after a 18 save/3 blown save split in 2007. Worst Case: Falls in love with the all-you-can-eat buffets at the hotels and blows up to 280 pounds (Already listed at 245 pounds). Extra weight causes arm problems and Capps get a case of the Pirate pitching injury bug and has to be shut down for the season with an ERA over 5.